Igor Nikolaev

T. Marchenko

• Affiliation: FBK Strategic Analysis Institute
  
• Address: Russian Federation

According to the Order of the President of the Russian Federation № 204 of 7 March 2018, the nation’s strategic goal is to ensure the growth rates of Russian economy above the worldwide average and thus to achieve an economic breakthrough. The Institute of strategic analysis of FBK Grant Thornton has analyzed the IMF economic growth rates data in 193 countries and has found out that having growth rates above the world level is not sufficient for making a breakthrough. Other criteria for achieving a breakthrough were worked out: 1) the GDP growth rates should be at least twice of the group’s average (two groups of countries are meant – developed and developing); 2) such growth level should be observed at least for 3 years in a row. The application of these criteria showed that in recent years 11 developed countries, headed by Ireland and Luxemburg, have achieved an economic breakthrough, as well as 43 developing countries, especially China. The analysis of economic factors, which led all these countries to breakthrough, shows that Russia lacks many of them, namely: low tax burden, attractiveness for foreign investments, potential for the wide import of progressive technologies. Also it is necessary to take into account sanctions confrontation, general geopolitical stress growth, the probability of upcoming world economic crisis. Thus, Russia’s chance to make a fast breakthrough seems to be slim.